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hornworts

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Post: 70155229_1 created on Wed, 09 Mar 2011 23:59:07 +0000
Posted: Wed, 09 Mar 2011 23:59:07 +0000

With the help of modern math ans simple probability of statistics, I can solve just the exact chance of winning the new RIG, the Crystal Overdrive.

This RIG has 4 levels, and at first glace good chances (90%-> 70%->50%) but will it be true? Only math will tell!

Starting from level one, you have a...

90% chance of getting to level 2 (duh)
63% chance of getting to level 3
And a.... wow, 31.5% chance of getting to a victory.
31.5% chance of getting to the second to final stage, apparently. WHo know what the last chance is.

Victories are unknown now! Buy! And good luck!

Discuss:

These chances
What you won!

Doctor Jingles

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Post: 70155229_2 created on Thu, 10 Mar 2011 00:01:47 +0000
Posted: Thu, 10 Mar 2011 00:01:47 +0000

from my ecperiance. It is hard to win... opened a bundle... and well made it to the last stage once.

dh328y4y8oehd

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Post: 70155229_3 created on Thu, 10 Mar 2011 00:04:37 +0000
Posted: Thu, 10 Mar 2011 00:04:37 +0000

why isn't anyone making a list?
D:

Canterellare

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Post: 70155229_4 created on Thu, 10 Mar 2011 00:05:17 +0000
Posted: Thu, 10 Mar 2011 00:05:17 +0000

kokoro string

why isn't anyone making a list?
D:

I was thinking the same thing. >3 >

KaylaGalela

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Post: 70155229_5 created on Thu, 10 Mar 2011 00:06:10 +0000
Posted: Thu, 10 Mar 2011 00:06:10 +0000

What about that big question mark? I thought that was the victory, but it doesn't give odds for that.

hornworts

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Post: 70155229_6 created on Thu, 10 Mar 2011 00:06:39 +0000
Posted: Thu, 10 Mar 2011 00:06:39 +0000

kokoro string

why isn't anyone making a list?
D:

I kind of want to jump at the chance, but I'm afraid I'll mess something up.

hornworts

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Post: 70155229_7 created on Thu, 10 Mar 2011 00:07:18 +0000
Posted: Thu, 10 Mar 2011 00:07:18 +0000

KaylaGalela

What about that big question mark? I thought that was the victory, but it doesn't give odds for that.

I'm assuming it is. I think in the bitter frost the victory was a large question mark.

KaylaGalela

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Post: 70155229_8 created on Thu, 10 Mar 2011 00:12:24 +0000
Posted: Thu, 10 Mar 2011 00:12:24 +0000

Sir Black Tea

KaylaGalela

What about that big question mark? I thought that was the victory, but it doesn't give odds for that.

I'm assuming it is. I think in the bitter frost the victory was a large question mark.

Well, what I mean is does that give you a 31.5% chance of winning or a 31.5% chance of getting a chance to win?

Blaze the Fire Dragon

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Post: 70155229_9 created on Thu, 10 Mar 2011 00:16:30 +0000
Posted: Thu, 10 Mar 2011 00:16:30 +0000

Math means nothing when faced with unimaginable bad luck. emo

Kiyoura

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Post: 70155229_10 created on Thu, 10 Mar 2011 00:18:13 +0000
Posted: Thu, 10 Mar 2011 00:18:13 +0000

Blaze the Fire Dragon

Math means nothing when faced with unimaginable bad luck. emo

I quite agree.

Blaze the Fire Dragon

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Post: 70155229_11 created on Thu, 10 Mar 2011 00:20:46 +0000
Posted: Thu, 10 Mar 2011 00:20:46 +0000

Nonetheless I want to buy one for that 0.01% chance that I might win that moogle kitten star thing.

hornworts

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Post: 70155229_12 created on Thu, 10 Mar 2011 00:32:45 +0000
Posted: Thu, 10 Mar 2011 00:32:45 +0000

KaylaGalela

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KaylaGalela

What about that big question mark? I thought that was the victory, but it doesn't give odds for that.

I'm assuming it is. I think in the bitter frost the victory was a large question mark.

Well, what I mean is does that give you a 31.5% chance of winning or a 31.5% chance of getting a chance to win?

If you buy a single and start from level 1, you have a 31.5% chance of getting a victory, to my understanding.

Just basing this off of the page in the MP. I'll try to play some soon.

nanofortnight

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Post: 70155229_13 created on Thu, 10 Mar 2011 00:34:20 +0000
Posted: Thu, 10 Mar 2011 00:34:20 +0000

Made the last stage nearly every time I played 9, but never actually won >.<

Faelann

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Post: 70155229_14 created on Thu, 10 Mar 2011 00:44:49 +0000
Posted: Thu, 10 Mar 2011 00:44:49 +0000

I one twice from a pack of 9 :T I think if you choose the airship you have to go with Ian, and if you choose Rufus you go to the girl. I always got onto the final stage with those combos. Not necessarily won them all x3.

Yukitsu

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Post: 70155229_15 created on Thu, 10 Mar 2011 00:46:20 +0000
Posted: Thu, 10 Mar 2011 00:46:20 +0000

I played 14 and didn't get a final victory from any of them e_e

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