By: Terradi
The big question a lot of Gaians are asking is: has the 2% listing fee changed prices on gaia? Some believe it has, some believe it hasn't.
I did some research to try and discover whether or not there had been a change and got some interesting results. The following are my discoveries:
Here are the price fluctuations which may be seen for each letter of the current year, 2007 up to the month of Septemer, 2007:
Code:
Jan 07
Feb 07
March 07
April 07
May 07
June 07
July 07
Aug 07
September 07
Due to the extremely large graphics for each of these images, I have chosen to link them rather than to post them in this article, but please open them and investigate them if you please.
For these items, we notice a high point when they first become available, then a sharp peak on the 15th when everyone finds out what's in them. It's a sharper peak if the item is extremely popular, as opposed to something which turns out to be a little plainer and something not so many people are interested in owning.
We also notice, in general that prices go up given enough time, because the items are considered to be more and more valuable. That is natural inflation and a normal rate of increase. That in itself is not a problem.
It's kind of hard to accurately judge how much prices are changing. If we measure rate of increase from one month to the next, we can get a general idea of the rate of change. But that would be comparing the amount increased, not whether or not there was a price increase.
It is unwise to compare January 2007 items to September 2007 items and to point to changes in price there as proof of any sort of market fluctuation. Each item is different and has been received differently by Gaian members around the site. Due to that, some are, naturally, considered to be more expensive than others and would be regardless of any other changes in the marketplace.
Let's compare internal price changes of a letter over the course of several months, pulling information from shortly before the 2% listing fee was introduced and after.
We'll take the Jan 07 since it's had the most time to level out. (Note: all of the following prices are rough estimates, not exact)
The Jan 07
Current price: 16,860g
Price in August: 13,000g (estimated)
So, in two months, an estimated rise of 3,860 gold
Let's compare, June to August, a similar stretch of time, before the marketplace was altered.
Price in June: 13,000g (estimated)
So this item has in general gone up quite a bit in interest from the beginning of the year to the end of it.
Is this normal for an item to do within its first year of existence or is it unique?
Let's try a Jan 06 letter .
This one looks a lot different. It already had a year at the start of this to play out increasing popularity due to being older and not so new.
It's worth 17,019 gold currently
August's price: 16,500g-16,000g
The difference is between 500 gold and 1k gold
June's price: 14,000g (estimate)
This one shows an increase of around 2k to 2.5 k. This one experienced less inflation after the market inflation occurred.
That makes two letters, both with very different results. Obviously, more data is needed to form a more accurate picture.
As we have been examining January letters, let's pull Jan 2005 and keep up the trend.
This one interesting visually, because it has been around long enough that there aren't so many sold daily. It's harder to get an average.
The Jan 05 is currently rated at 187,220g
In August it was 140,000g (estimate)
In June it was comparable, at 140,000 or so.
So ... an increase of quite a good chunk of gold. This one supports the theory that the 2% listing increased inflation.
To complete the set, let's examine the last of the January letters: Jan 04
Current price: 526,557
August price: 564,551 (courtesy of tektek)
June price: 501,131 (also courtesy of tektek)
This one has actually gone down in price since August, though it was increasing quite a bit from before that.
That makes two in favor of the 2% listing fee and two against.
What does that mean?
It means that different items are rising and falling at different rates. You'd need to take the average of all MC's over those months and average the price difference between one stretch of time and the next to get a really accurate idea of what's going on there and how much is seen simply because one side or the other wants to see it.
I have neither the software to do this quickly nor the patience to do it manually for every item to prove which side is right.
Thus, at current time, the best we can conclude is that the data is still inconclusive. There is no proof that either side is correct in their argument that the 2% listing fee has altered prices.
This may not be the final answer, but a temporary conclusion. Further time and further research, perhaps done by one with much more patience than myself, may yet give a more definite answer.
I have done my humble best to present a fair, objective look at marketplace changes over the course of the past few months. I hope it has been educational.
