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Less Than Liz

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Posted: Thu Jan 03, 2008 6:04 pm

Live updates from Politico.

Wiki on how the Iowa Caucus works (complete with Obama picture proclaiming him the winner, haha. I guess folks are excited. EDIT: And Huckabee too? Geez.)

Currently, it's Huckabee in the lead and Paul's tied with McCain for fourth.

The important thing to remember is that the results released to the media are essentially straw poll results. What really matters is that voters stay to vote for delegates. This is where things get complicated because a lot of folks are unaware of this and leave immediately after their first "vote."

In my own opinion, the best strategy for Paul supporters would be to know ahead of time who is definitely a Paul supporter and delegate, then vote for them. This way votes are not diluted among various would-be Paul delegates. Another thing to consider would be the undecided delegates. It is entirely possible that some folks are masking as undecideds in order to garner moderate support and then vote for the candidate they truly support.

Have fun watching the results come in and post your predictions! Here's mine from yesterday:

Quote:

I see him likely coming in fourth, maybe third if things go really well. I'm trying not to be overly optimistic and based on what I've read fourth seems reasonable. It really depends, in my opinion, on the turnout of McCain supporters and whether that surge was just a fluke or if it'll show up in votes.

Huckabee: 26%
Romney: 24%
McCain: 15%
Paul: 14%
Thompson: 10%
Giuliani: 8%
Hunter: 2%
Keyes: 1%

Posted: Thu Jan 03, 2008 6:10 pm

I'm surprised Paul is trailing in 5th, but yeah, you're right, we need to wait a bit before percentages solidify. This is my first political, er, watch? razz So I'm picking up little bits and pieces of how these things work.

(So sorry ahead of time if I get confused or misinterpret something in here)

PoultryChamp

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Elaienar
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Posted: Thu Jan 03, 2008 6:28 pm

My brother and I are watching something live on c-span right now. As I'm a self-proclaimed optimist, I'm going to predict Dr. Paul coming in first. 3nodding

...And then I'm going to go to bed and pray like the dickens.

Posted: Thu Jan 03, 2008 7:16 pm

Pat Buchannan predicted that Ron Paul would defeat Guiliani, Thompson, and possibly McCain.

Edit: Last I checked (around 10:35 PM EST) the current order was Huckabee, Romney, McCain with 78% of polling locations reporting in. Assuming everyone else voted for Paul he could possibly snatch second place but third is a more realistic goal at this point.

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PoultryChamp

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Posted: Thu Jan 03, 2008 8:06 pm

At 86% Ron Paul is still in 5th, but he is nipping at the butts of McCain and Thompson. Giuliani hasn't moved much in the last hour or two, which leads me to believe he might shoot up a bit soon, but not past Ron.

Ron has a great chance nation-wide. I think Huckabee's state win is due to his religion, honestly. I've barely heard him talk about the damn issues. Just seen him play a guitar and talk about God. I hope he fizzles out.

Thompson's campaign is weak. I am surprised he was able to gain as much votes as he did.

Posted: Fri Jan 04, 2008 8:03 am

Paul got fifth by votes, fourth by percentage, but if I understand things correctly nobody after Romney will get Iowan delegates for the national convention.

While I still support Paul and I hope he gets the Republican nomination it would be wise to look at some backup plans. So far the Libertarian and Constitution parties, which are two of the larger third parties, wish to draft Paul should he fail to get the nomination. If he should accept either of those he'll likely land on the ballot in most states, but be prepared to write him in.

Should Paul fail to secure the nomination and steps down completely we may want to vote for Huckabee. Most of the Republican pool runs on a number of similiar positions but McCain and Rudy are both far more liberal then they pass themselves off as. Meanwhile, Huckabee is the only candidate besides Ron Paul to even talk seriously about implementing the fair tax. Paul is the only anti-war Republican, but at least we could get part of his plan out of Huckabee.

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Elaienar
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Posted: Fri Jan 04, 2008 10:29 am

Municipal Darwinism

Paul got fifth by votes, fourth by percentage, but if I understand things correctly nobody after Romney will get Iowan delegates for the national convention.

I haven't heard that. I did hear, though (on the radio) that all the delegates from Jefferson County (where Dr. Paul won with a little over 35%) are his supporters. I'm not sure how accurate that is, though, or how that affects the national convention.

If we can't vote for Dr. Paul, my parents and I are likely going to vote Constitution Party. Huckabee seems like a nice guy, but after what he pulled with the homeschoolers in Arkansas he's a little less than completely unpopular in our family.

Posted: Fri Jan 04, 2008 9:03 pm

Elaienar

Huckabee seems like a nice guy, but after what he pulled with the homeschoolers in Arkansas he's a little less than completely unpopular in our family.

You can say that again.